#2020election #trumpmotives #trump
After two and a half years of a Trump presidency that has brought tears, shame, discourse and discord, polarization and an avalanche of democratic candidates, I have come to realize Trump’s motives are not inherently evil, nor irrational. No, they are fully rational and always anchored in popularity and money.
You can take almost any issue that has come up since his presidency began and you can categorize it into one of those two buckets; popularity, money or both.
Take the following examples:
North Korea Antagonizing
Soon after Trump became President, one of his chief strategies to become popular was to appear as both, a strongman and a savior, at the same time. North Korea was one of the subjects President Obama warned Trump about when the former left office. When President Obama debriefed Trump, he informed him that North Korea’s nuclear trials were getting dangerously close to completion. Upon completion, US intelligence believed North Korea would be able to launch an intercontinental nuclear missile capable of reaching mainland United States. Rather than allow diplomatic talks to take course, Trump began to tweet about “little rocket man” and how North Korea would be met with “fire and fury“, etc, etc. Soon after these dumb tweets, US and North Korea diplomats were able to arrange a summit in Singapore in 2018 and a second one in Vietnam earlier this year. In all cases, Trump got what he wanted; popularity. Through his tweeting, he demonstrated his tough-guy persona to his followers, and through the two summits, aimed at finding a deal, he demonstrated his deal-making and savior profile (something he often touted during the campaign trail). However, he achieved very little through any and all of his efforts, as the last summit ended without a deal and as of today we are not better off than in 2017.
Arms deal with Saudi Arabia immediately after the Saudis had killed US-Resident Jamal Khashoggi
If popularity is Trump’s drug of choice, then money is his sustenance. When news of the disappearance of US-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi emerged, with links to the Saudi government, Trump again used his tough-guy persona and said he would confront the Saudi government about the issue. Initially the Saudis did everything possible to hide their trail, until the Turkish government revealed video footage of Mr. Khashoggi going into the Saudi embassy and never emerging, at which point they claimed Mr. Khashoggi had suffered an accident. As the Saudi’s needed Presidential approval in order to purchase US weapons, Trump had real leverage to push the Saudis on the assassination of the journalist, instead, as he often does, he told the truth and said he would not break a deal with the Saudis and instead would “take their money“.
Tax breaks
The tax reform of 2017 was an example of both, a popular move and a money move. Most Americans received very little from the tax cuts, mostly in the hundreds of dollars. And even though the benefits to most of the population amounted to little, it was a popular move. On the other hand, corporations and investors received much more. The corporations received a huge windfall in the form of a lowered corporate tax rate, from 35% to 21% and an even lower one-time repatriation tax rate on over $2.5 trillion (yes, trillion) of 15.5%. The latter resulted in huge gains for corporations and their investors through dividends or stock buy-backs (when a corporation purchases its own outstanding shares back it raises the value of the shares).
Hence my realization that Trump is less a person with ultimately irrational or nefarious motives, rather someone that is guided by how popular or unpopular he is and/or how much money he or his business partners make.
