#trump #impeachment #2020
The talk of impeachment is heating up in congress and with some Presidential candidates (all democratic at the time of this writing). Most folks think once Trump is impeached, he’ll be removed from office. What most fail to realize is that impeachment is only the first step in a long and political minefield.
In the late 90s, President Clinton was impeached, yet he finished his term. Prior to the impeachment of Clinton, the only other President to have been successfully impeached was President Andrew Johnson. Like Clinton, President Johnson was impeached, but was not removed from office. In other words, since the US Constitution became law in 1789, 230 years ago, there have only been two successful impeachments of a US President.
Impeachment talk, therefore, is not the end-game, but only the beginning. Impeachment is the process of bringing up formal charges against an elected official. In the case of a President, with the exception of the 25th Amendment, this is the only option for removal from office before a term. These formal charges are known as articles of impeachment. The articles of impeachment are created as a result of an investigation by Congress. In the case of Trump, the Mueller investigation would be used as a starting point. Congress would likely utilize the work done by Mueller and his team and subpoena any additional witnesses in order to put forward the necessary evidence to have Congress vote on the articles of impeachment.
Supposing the investigation by Congress resulted in articles of impeachment, these articles would be put for a vote by the House of Representatives. To proceed, a simple majority (more than 51%) is necesary. Our current Congress, the 116th, enjoys a democratic majority of 54% so it’s conceivable, if an investigation were initiated, and articles of impeachment brought up for a vote, Trump would be impeached.
Once impeached, formally charged, the Congress would pass the matter onto the Senate. Where the Congress has the authority to impeach an elected official, the authority to judge said official falls with the Senate. The Senate would place Trump on trial given the articles of impeachment. In the last 230 years, no President has ever been convicted. Both previous impeachments, those of Presidents Johnson and Clinton, did not result in a conviction.
For an impeached President to be convicted, the Senate must vote two-thirds (2/3) in favor. And here is where things will get tricky given the current Senate makeup where Republicans hold the majority at 53%. There is very little evidence that leads me to believe any one Republican would break party-lines. And much less, there would be enough Republicans to convict Trump. What is worse, if an investigation lead to articles of impeachment, and Trump was impeached but not convicted, it is very likely he would be even more popular. Trump and his followers would characterize the whole process as a witch-hunt which would likely energize any voters on the fence. And if the timing worked right, he could even use this victory to move the needle in his favor for the 2020 election.
Where does this leave us? It leaves us with the best option we have always had, to vote him out in 2020. In 2016 Trump was elected President and the wishes of the American people should be respected. While it is my opinion Trump should be impeached and removed from office. I am also of the opinion that Trump is a symptom of our current democratic process which managed to marginalize enough people to get Trump elected in the first place. And unless we, all citizens regardless of political affiliation, do something about it, this ideological polarization will be the new norm.
